Philippine campaign begins, Arroyo future the issue

By Raju Gopalakrishnan

DAGUPAN, Philippines (Reuters) - Campaigning began across the Philippines on Tuesday for congressional elections in May, with the focus on whether the opposition can win enough seats to impeach President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo.

Critics of Arroyo, who say she cheated in the 2004 presidential election to clinch a six-year term, need to control at least one-third of the 266-seat House of Representatives to send her to an impeachment trial at the Senate, which is likely to be dominated by the opposition.

Governor Luis "Chavit" Singson of Ilocos Sur is mobbed by supporters at the Commission on Elections office as he arrives to file his certificate of candidacy in Manila February 12, 2007. Campaigning began across the Philippines on Tuesday for congressional elections in May. (REUTERS/Joseph Agcaoili)

That might prove difficult and, even if they get the seats, an impeachment may not follow automatically, analysts say. Money, power politics and divisions in the opposition are all factors.

"The opposition so far hasn't shown a great deal of finesse in positioning themselves to win," said Scott Harrison, managing director of risk analysts Pacific Strategies and Assessments Ltd.

"If the opposition does get one-third, some people will position themselves to try and sell their vote. So there will be a lot of horse-trading after the elections.

"But if she becomes totally embroiled in an impeachment case, her entire focus will be on that and institutional investors will begin to worry that she's taking her eye off the ball in terms of economic reform, cracking down on corruption etc."

Among overseas investors, Arroyo is widely credited with improving economic fundamentals, taming the runaway budget deficit and creating a business-friendly environment. But within the country, the 2004 cheating charges are more talked about.

Impeachment motions brought against her in 2005 and 2006 were defeated because the opposition could not muster the required number of votes in the House.

In Dagupan, a sleepy seaside town 160 km north of Manila, Mayor Benjamin Lim is considering running for the House on an anti-Arroyo platform despite belonging to her Lakas party.

"On the issue of legitimacy, I called for her resignation because I felt the air had to be cleared," he told Reuters.

He still feels that way, but not wholly.

"If it's true the economy is really improving and the administration is doing the right thing for our people, I think we must have to weigh and balance this," Lim said.

"On the other hand, if the issue of legitimacy still persists, then to clear the air, let the chips fall where they should fall."

AMOEBA

All the seats in the House, half of the 24-member Senate and almost 18,000 local government posts will be filled in the May 14 election. Nominations for the Senate closed at midnight and the campaign officially kicked off on Tuesday.

Nominations for the House close at the end of March.

Opinion polls indicate that about 7-8 of the senators likely to be elected will be anti-Arroyo, taking their total in the Senate to 11 or 12. At least four are likely to be neutral and even those with her are capable of taking an independent stand.

A two-thirds majority in the Senate has to vote against the president in an impeachment trial to remove her from office.

But there seems to be little commitment to a programme among the candidates, said Benito Lim, a professor of political science at the University of the Philippines.

"One would expect the opposition leaders would question the leadership of Arroyo, her legitimacy, as well as her economic programmes and use those as campaign issues against her," he said.

"Unfortunately, the opposition like amoeba has divided itself again and again. They are for themselves, they have no loyalty, they are not committed to any programme and they are all grabbing for power."

In Dagupan, there seems little evidence yet of the impending election, but the stakes are fairly clear.

"It's different in the Philippines," said Tony Gonzales, a bare-chested man sitting in a shack on a beach near the town. "Elections here, you vote for whoever gives you money."